Research and analysis of solar photovoltaic market

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research and analysis of solar photovoltaic market in the first half of July

recently, we investigated four photovoltaic enterprises in Jiangyin, covering auxiliary materials, silicon wafers, batteries and components

research conclusion:

component and consumable enterprises experienced a low tide in May and June, but since July, there has been a general response that shipments have begun to improve significantly. It is generally reported that the shipment volume of enterprises fell significantly in June, and the product price fell sharply, but since mid to late June and July, the sales volume has begun to recover. Take the sales volume of accessories and welding rods in components as an example. The sales volume in January was about 100 tons, the sales volume in May was reduced to 70 tons, and the sales volume in June was 8 - and the noise of the machine was also very small. The sales volume in July was expected to be tons. Welding rods are a leading indicator of the industry boom to a certain extent, indicating that the photovoltaic market has begun to improve significantly. Component enterprises reported that production lines were shut down in June due to relatively high inventory. At present, inventory has fallen to a low level and the whole line has been started. Of course, inventory in European ports is still high, and components are still in the process of de stocking as a whole. From the perspective of the end market, the installation volume in the German market is expected to be 2gw in the first half of the year. The current credit situation is good, and the low shrinkage processing technology is used to give the fiber an appropriate degree of fluffy. It is expected that the installation demand in the third quarter is relatively strong, and it is expected to be around 8GW in the whole year, while the credit in the Italian market is relatively tight, and the U.S. market generally responds that the demand is better than expected

the prices of photovoltaic products have experienced a round of deep decline. For example, if the sensor with expanded configuration is at 10 torque, it is generally assumed that the price is difficult to improve greatly in the short term. After the deep decline in component prices in the early stage, the current mainstream component prices are mainly 0.95 euro/watt. At present, European inquiries have increased significantly, but the mainstream offer price is as low as 0.85 euro/watt. Both sides are testing their bottom line. As Europe is also well aware of China's current overcapacity dilemma, the global production capacity has reached 50gw and the output demand is GW, most respondents believe that the component price is difficult to rebound significantly, and the polysilicon price also believes that there is a certain false high, and the polysilicon price may fall to $45/kg next year. The price of cutting edge material also increased from 2% at the beginning of the year 90000/ton has been reduced to the current 24000/ton, which generally reflects that the price has reached a low point. However, because the inventory of individual blade material enterprises is still high, as the industry recovers, the blade material price is difficult to improve. Accordingly, the price of silicon carbide, which accounts for 80% of raw materials, also fell sharply, from 11000 yuan/ton to 8000 yuan/ton. In addition, single crystals are relatively popular this year, and the price is relatively strong

the profiteering period of the photovoltaic industry has passed, and the industrial concentration has further improved. The next turning point of development lies in parity. In the past few years, the photovoltaic industry has been rotating in great sorrow and joy, and there is a great opportunity for crazy profits. However, when the current global production capacity is as high as 50gw, most respondents believe that the profiteering period of the photovoltaic industry has passed, and the profitability of the photovoltaic industry will also return to the profitability of traditional manufacturing. At present, the orders of large enterprises are gradually increasing, and they are basically close to full production, while small enterprises are facing the embarrassment of eating the last meal but not the next meal. It is expected that small enterprises will be eliminated from the bloody washing of overcapacity in the industry, and the industrial concentration will be further improved. It is expected that the component price will continue to fall to $1/watt, and some regions have the possibility of user-side parity. When the parity reaches a certain level, it will be the next inflection point for the development of the photovoltaic industry, which is expected to appear in the next two to three years

diamond cutting process, single crystal ingot and n-type silicon wafer process are worthy of close tracking, which is in line with the future development direction. At present, there are still some problems in the diamond cutting process, such as scratches on the surface, suitable for cutting single crystals, not suitable for cutting polycrystals, and high cost. However, the diamond cutting process may be the mainstream direction in the future, especially in Japan, because the traditional cutting edge materials can only rely on imports due to environmental protection problems. The diamond cutting process is the most popular in Japan and has been tried out. Single crystal ingot is the main product of Jingao. N-type silicon wafer is also a way for Yingli and other brand enterprises to seek to improve the conversion efficiency. N-type silicon wafer is relatively widely used abroad, and it is likely to develop in this direction in China in the future. With the proportion of polysilicon cost becoming lower and lower, improving the conversion efficiency of single crystal ingots and n-type silicon wafers is an effective way to reduce the unit cost

investment suggestions: pay attention to the phased investment opportunities of the photovoltaic sector in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, photovoltaic will be repeated in the recovery and relative excess supply. Due to the high beta characteristics of photovoltaic stocks, we believe that the overall photovoltaic sector will move forward in shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased investment opportunities of the photovoltaic sector. Polysilicon prices rebounded slightly, focusing on Leshan power (Unrated) and Dunan environment (buy), integrated and single crystal enterprises, and Haitong group (Unrated); Oake shares, which has stable profits of photovoltaic accessories and large performance flexibility (purchase); The performance of photovoltaic equipment is determined this year. It is recommended to pay attention to Jinggong Technology (Unrated), Tianlong Optoelectronics (Unrated), etc

catalyst: photovoltaic product price rise, inventory reduction, golden sun project, photovoltaic power station start bidding

risk factors: European debt crisis, policy risk, product price decline, semi annual report performance is lower than expected

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